Pemanasan global perlu ditangani untuk kehidupan pada masa depan

PADA 7 hingga 18 Disember nanti tumpuan dunia adalah kepada Persidangan Perubahan Iklim Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu (COP15) yang akan berlangsung Copenhagen, Denmark. Pada persidangan ini, negara di dunia akan cuba berunding dan mendapatkan persetujuan mengenai komitmen negara kaya dan negara membangun mengenai had pembebasan gas karbon dioksida (CO2) dalam mengawal perubahan iklim masa depan dan juga komitmen bantuan dana negara maju terhadap negara membangun dalam mengurangkan pembebasan CO2.

Beberapa persidangan berlangsung sebagai persediaan atau pemanas kepada persidangan di Copenhagen ini. Satu daripadanya ialah Persidangan Bangsa-Bangsa Bersatu bagi Perubahan Iklim di New York pada 22 September lalu di mana ketua negara seperti Presiden Amerika Syarikat, Barack Obama dan Presiden China, Hu Jintao masing-masing menyuarakan komitmen mereka dalam menstabilkan iklim dunia. Bagaimanapun harapan sesuatu yang konkrit akan dicapai di Copenhagen semakin cair. Pada Persidangan Kerjasama Ekonomi Asia Pasifik (Apec) di Singapura baru-baru ini ketua negara bersetuju sesuatu perjanjian yang konkrit di Copenhagen mungkin tidak dapat dicapai.

Perkembangan ini sememangnya berita buruk kepada iklim dunia yang memerlukan komitmen negara pembebas utama gas CO2 seperti Amerika Syarikat dan China. Bagaimanapun, kita tunggu dan lihat hasil persidangan ini nanti. Laporan Penilaian ke-4 Perubahan Iklim oleh Panel Perubahan Iklim Antara Kerajaan (IPCC) yang dikeluarkan pada 2007 menyebut bahawa perubahan iklim dunia adalah sesuatu yang tidak dapat disangkal lagi.




Peningkatan suhu dunia sejak 50 tahun lalu adalah disebabkan oleh peningkatan kepekatan gas rumah hijau terutama akibat penggunaan bahan api fosil sejak era perindustrian bermula lebih 100 tahun lalu.

Ramai mungkin bertanya mengapa perubahan iklim buatan manusia ini perlu dibimbangi dan dihentikan sedangkan fakta sains menunjukkan iklim dunia memang berayun dari tempoh glasial kepada antiglasial secara semula jadi. Ayunan ini adalah disebabkan perubahan orbit bumi mengelilingi matahari dan mengambil masa dalam lebih kurang 100,000 tahun sekali. Perubahan iklim buatan manusia atau antropogenik ini pula berlaku begitu cepat di mana dalam masa 100 tahun iklim dunia berubah begitu cepat dan dalam masa 100 tahun lagi bumi akan melalui satu sejarah iklim yang ia tidak pernah lalui sejak sejuta tahun lalu sekiranya pembebasan CO2 tidak dikurangkan dan distabilkan.

Data ‘teras ais’ yang digerudi sedalam empat kilometer di Vostok, Antartika dapat memberikan maklumat ayunan suhu dan kepekatan gas CO2 dan metana (CH4) sejak lebih 600,000 tahun lalu. Sepanjang tempoh ini ayunan glasial dan antiglasial ini jelas ditunjukkan seiring dengan peningkatan dan penurunan suhu dunia dan juga kepekatan CO2 dan CH4. Yang menariknya sepanjang tempoh lebih setengah juta tahun ini kepekatan CO2 berlegar sekitar nilai maksimum lebih kurang 300 bahagian persejuta (ppm) ketika tempoh antiglasial dan nilai minum 200 ppm ketika tempoh glasial. Tetapi kepekatan CO2 kini mencecah 400 ppm dan dijangkakan pada 2050 nanti kepekatan ini mencapai antara 500-600 ppm.

Gas rumah hijau seperti CO2, CH4 sememangnya secara semula jadi sebahagian daripada gas penting di atmosfera dalam mencorakkan iklim dunia. Fungsi utamanya adalah memerangkap haba yang dibebaskan oleh bumi daripada terlepas ke angkasa lepas dan menjadi bumi ini suhu tinggi dan sesuai untuk kita huni. Tanpa mekansime perangkap haba ini, bumi sebenarnya jauh lebih sejuk dan tidak sesuai dihuni oleh pelbagai makhluk hidup termasuk kita. Bagaimanapun peningkatan kepekatan gas ini di luar julat semula jadi memerangkap haba berlebihan dan meningkatkan suhu dunia dan menjelmakan fenomena yang kita sering sebut sebagai pemanasan global.

Mengapa pemanasan global berterusan sesuatu yang perlu dihentikan. Kebanyakan haba yang diserap oleh sistem iklim dunia diserap oleh lautan. Peningkatan suhu lautan akan merubah corak iklim dan cuaca dunia, merubah corak cuaca ekstrem seperti kejadian banjir, ribut, kemarau dan sebagainya. Perubahan ini akan membawa pelbagai impak kepada tamadun manusia dan persekitaran dan ekosistem di mana kehidupan manusia banyak bergantung. Pemanasan global akan mencairkan ais di Kutub Utara dan Selatan dan akan menenggelamkan kawasan yang rendah.

Peningkatan suhu dengan fenomena cuaca ekstrem seperti kemarau dan banjir dan juga penenggelaman kawasan delta yang subur akan mengurangkan keupayaan manusia meningkatkan pengeluaran makanan. Dijangkakan pada 2050 nanti penduduk dunia akan meningkat kepada 10 bilion iaitu peningkatan lebih tiga bilion dari populasi sekarang, malapetaka kebuluran akan menunggu manusia jika perubahan iklim tidak ditangani.

Peningkatan suhu yang melebihi 40 darjah Celsius akan menjadikan banyak tanaman masa ini tidak dapat hidup sesuai dalam suhu yang panas seperti itu.

Di sesetengah rantau kemarau menjadi semakin teruk dan menjadikan kawasan berkenaan tidak lagi sesuai untuk didiami dan akan berlaku transmigrasi akibat perubahan iklim dan ini akan menjadi punca konflik dunia pada masa akan datang.



Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang @ Tajudin Mahmud ialah Ketua, Pusat Penyelidikan Sistem Perubahan Iklim Tropika (Ikilm) di Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), yang juga Naib Pengerusi Kumpulan Kerja 1 IPCC.

Teknologi jana kuasa tenaga angin mikro alternatif baru

DI sebalik usaha kerajaan menerusi Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) menyediakan bekalan elektrik di seluruh negara, masih ada beberapa kawasan yang tidak memiliki kemudahan asas itu kerana tidak boleh diakses oleh grid bekalan elektrik biasa.

Antara kawasan itu ialah pedalaman Sabah dan Sarawak serta kira-kira 50 pulau di seluruh negara hingga penduduknya berasa seolah-olah disisihkan kerana tidak menikmati kemudahan asas itu yang dianggap sesetengah mereka lebih penting daripada bekalan air kerana ia disifatkan sebagai lambang kemewahan.

Bagaimanapun, usaha kerajaan memastikan kawasan berkenaan menikmati kemudahan itu, kini boleh diatasi dengan penggunaan angin untuk tujuan penjanaan tenaga elektrik, sekali gus mengurangkan kebergantungan terhadap minyak selain gas dan arang batu sebagai bahan bakar.



Walaupun ada pihak berpendapat kaedah penggunaan angin untuk tujuan penjanaan tenaga tidak sesuai di negara ini berbanding Eropah dan Amerika Syarikat yang mempunyai banyak angin dan regim lintasan angin ketara, teknologi jana kuasa tenaga angin mikro yang diperkenalkan oleh syarikat Jepun, Global Energy, masalah itu boleh diatasi.

Menyedari potensi tinggi teknologi itu, syarikat pegangan pelaburan dikuasai oleh Bumiputera, Emax Integrate Sdn Bhd (Emax) yang menjalankan aktiviti perniagaan berasaskan teknologi hijau dan membran yang berasal dari Jepun dan Korea Selatan memeterai perjanjian pembelian harta intelek dan pemindahan teknologi itu di Seoul, Korea Selatan, 11 November lalu.

Perjanjian itu dimeterai antara Emax dengan Global Energy dan Anyteksys dari Korea Selatan bernilai RM10 juta.

Global Energy ialah syarikat berasaskan pembangunan dan penyelidikan (R&D) berkaitan jana kuasa angin mikro dan kapal terbang serta kipas kapal, manakala Anyteksys adalah syarikat peneraju teknologi sel bahan api di Korea.

Menerusi perjanjian itu, Emax mendapat hak mengeluarkan komponen utama teknologi itu di Malaysia dan boleh mengeksportnya ke luar negara. Di samping itu, Emax juga boleh menambah baik reka bentuk yang sedia ada atau menghasilkan reka bentuk baru dengan menggunakan teknologi yang sama.

Reka bentuk yang baru itu akan didaftarkan sebagai harta intelek syarikat. Dalam perancangan terdekat, turbin angin dengan kapasiti 10,000 watt akan didaftar dan dikeluarkan di negara ini. Begitu juga reka bentuk untuk ladang angin (wind farm) iaitu himpunan beberapa turbin angin dalam satu kawasan bagi menjana elektrik yang lebih banyak.

Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Emax, Mohd Azmi Mohd Razalli, berkata antara kelebihan teknologi jana kuasa tenaga angin mikro itu ialah ia boleh beroperasi pada kadar kelajuan angin yang rendah berbanding teknologi yang ada di pasaran pada masa ini.

"Terdapat dua jenis turbin angin dikeluarkan iaitu menggunakan jenis bilah kipas iaitu menegak dan mendatar dengan jenis bilah menegak dengan rotor diameter 2,000 milimeter (mm) boleh menjana tenaga 3,000 Watt maksimum dengan kelajuan angin empat meter sesaat.

"Manakala teknologi yang menggunakan lima bilah kipas mendatar dengan rotor diameter 1,500 mm mampu menjana 2,000 Watt maksimum dengan kelajuan angin empat meter sesaat," katanya.

Mohd Azmi berkata, antara kelebihan lain teknologi jana kuasa itu berbanding teknologi sedia ada ialah angin boleh datang dari mana-mana arah, selain putaran kipasnya lebih senyap dengan menggunakan bilah yang diperbuat daripada gentian plastik yang diperkuatkan.

Dari segi kesan terhadap alam sekitar, katanya, penggunaan angin untuk menjana tenaga elektrik memang tidak mencemarkan persekitaran kerana ia tidak mengeluarkan sebarang gas pencemar udara seperti penjanaan tenaga elektrik yang menggunakan sumber minyak atau fosil.

"Kebanyakan negara Eropah dan Amerika Syarikat, termasuk negara Asia seperti Jepun dan Korea Selatan kini sudah banyak menggunakan teknologi angin sebagai tenaga alternatif dan semakin maju berikutan kenaikan harga minyak di pasaran, selain bertujuan memelihara alam sekitar," katanya.

Sehubungan itu, katanya, pihaknya akan melaksanakan projek perintis penggunaan teknologi jana kuasa itu di Pulau Larapan, Semporna, Sabah, pada 15 Disember ini dengan kerja pemasangan komponennya sedang rancak dijalankan.

"Menerusi projek perintis itu, kita akan dapat membekalkan elektrik di pulau berkenaan dengan permulaan untuk keperluan surau dan balai budaya," katanya.

Man of the forest vulnerable to forest conversionCommon Name: Orang-utan (Eng & Bahasa Melayu)Kogiu (Orang Sungai language) Scientific Name: Pongo pygmaeus (Borneon orang-utan)Habitat: Lowland forests, also found in tropical, swamp and mountain forestsStatus: Endangered globally. Vulnerable in Sabah & SarawakPopulation: Estimated to be about 12,300 in Sabah & Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo.

Background

Asia’s only great ape, the orang-utan or ‘man of the forest’ is found only on the islands of Borneo and Sumatra. Globally classified as endangered due to their habitat being destroyed, fragmented and poaching, orang-utans in Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) are probably best classed as ‘vulnerable’. Much of their prime habitat has been converted to plantations and the rate of habitat loss has hit a very low level in recent years. There is almost no hunting of this species in Malaysia, and most of the remaining populations are found in forests that are protected or under natural forest management.Borneo is unique in that it has three distinct populations or subspecies of orang-utans:

Pongo pygmaeus pygmaeus (northwest populations)

Pongo pygmaeus morio (northeast and east populations)

Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii (southwest populations)

Orang-utans in the Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak occur mainly in the lowlands. In Sarawak, there are about 1,300 orang-utans, almost all in the Lanjak-Entimau Wildlife Sanctuary and Batang Ai National Park in the south next to West Kalimantan, Indonesia. In Sabah, there were five main areas of special importance with a total of 20,000 orang-utans in the mid 1980s (by WWF-Malaysia working with the Sabah Forestry Department, 1986).

By 2004, the orang-utan population in Sabah had dropped to about 11,000 individuals (by Kinabatangan Orang-utan Conservation Project working with Sabah Wildlife Department, 2003). This decline in their numbers in the last twenty years was caused by planned conversion of forests to plantations in the eastern lowlands. Physical and species description Orang-utans generally have brown and rust-coloured shaggy fur. Weighing in at an average of 50 kg, female orang-utans grow to about 1.1 m in height and weigh 30 - 50 kg. Males weigh 50-90 kg and stand 1.2 - 1.5 m tall.

Ecology, Habitat & Distribution

Fruit eater sleeps in new nest every nightImagine sleeping 2 storeys and above up in the trees every night. The arboreal orang-utan lives up in trees where they bend twigs and small branches together to make a large nest-platform for sleeping. They are the largest tree dwelling mammal in the world. Adult orang-utans are solitary, except during mating. Orang-utans are not territorial, maintaining a loose relationship in a given area although adult males are hostile to one another. Crowding may cause them to fight over the limited supply of fruits. An adult female gives birth about once every six years.DietOmnivorous, orang-utans eat both plants and animals but feed mainly on fruits, young leaves, bark and insects. By about the age of ten, an orang-utan can recognise over 200 different food plants. The orang-utan’s favourite food is fruit.Population decline of 40% in last two decadesOrang-utans in Sabah and Sarawak live mainly in lowland rainforests but are also found in tropical, swamp and mountain forests. Sarawak has about 1,300 orang-utans, almost all in the Lanjak-Entimau Wildlife Sanctuary and Batang Ai National Park to the south bordering West Kalimantan, Indonesia. In Sabah, there are about 11,000 individuals today, the population having declined by over 40% in the last 20 years due mainly to planned conversion of forests to plantations in the eastern lowlands. Drought and forest fires, especially during the El Nino events of 1982-83 and 1997-98, but also 1987 and 1991, contributed to the decline.

Threats

Destruction of natural forests and unreliable food sourcesWild orang-utan populations need a reliable source of a variety of fruits and young leaves to survive. They can survive only in extensive natural forests. The availability of food all year round means not all forests can support long-term breeding populations. We now know that this gentle ape can survive only in lowlands - where fertile soils and constant water availability allow steady food production - or where there are several forest types with different fruiting and leaf-producing seasons. There is little point in putting orang-utans where they have historically not existed, as lack of food supply may eventually cause them to die. There are six areas in Malaysia with quite large populations but this does not mean that any one of these places is unimportant. There is always the risk that one or more populations could be devastated by disease, drought or fires.

Maintaining natural forests with viable wild breeding populations and restoring degraded forests is vital for the continued survival of orang-utans in Malaysia. Hence, the Sabah government’s initiative to retain the largest orang-utan population in the Ulu Segama-Malua Forest Reserves under sustainable forest management (SFM) deserves full support. The Deramakot forest management model, which produces controlled amounts of timber for international auction, certified according to international standards since 1997, shows what can be done. SFM could reduce forest damage and provide enough time for the forest to regenerate. In SFM, reforestation is necessary to ensure the forest rehabilitation or restoration take place in any sustainably managed forest. In the Lower Kinabatangan, various isolated forest patches need to be joined through restoration.

Mangroves - making it right

The need to preserve the country’s remaining tracts of swamps and to reforest eroded coastlines has never been more pressing than after the tsunami. This plot in Sg Hj Doranim, Sg Besar, Selangor, is where FRIM tries to find the best way to plant mangroves.

THERE'S something riveting about a budding patch of green rising up from a bed of mire.
The tenacity in which those seedlings try to break loose from the deluge of mud, its shoots reaching up for air and life, is a sign of revitalised hope. Like a spark of life amid the murk.But by the end of a year, for every one that survives, six fail to last out the harsh elements.T

he survival rate of replanted mangroves is dismal to say the least, says expert Dr Shamsudin Ibrahim.For years, the country's foresters and many green groups and firms have spent endless hours and millions of ringgit rehabilitating mangrove forests the usual way, which is to lodge the seedling into a hole in the swamp and tie it to a stick for support.

Unfortunately, the young plant is no match for waves, wind and bad sediment.The sleepy, scenic fishing village of Sg Hj Dorani, Sg Besar, Selangor is one example. Mud along the coast is so soft that no trees would grow.

"During high tides, the mud moves. If you plant it here, the next day, the plant moves elsewhere.

"There's no chance for the seedling to establish itself," says Shamsudin, forestry and environmental director of the Forest Research Institute Malaysia (FRIM).How can delicate saplings rise above towering crashes of waves, strong winds and liquid mud to anchor themselves firm enough into the ground and grow then?

This is where the challenge is for FRIM, tasked under a national initiative to find the best way to plant mangroves.

FRIM chose the worst place to start -- the 120km-from-town Sg Hj Dorani -- where erosion is so bad it is listed as risk 1, imminently threatening properties and economic activities nearby.Mangroves stretching 1km out into the sea half a decade ago are now a mere 200m strip left holding up the Kuala Bernam forest reserve.

But Dr Raja Barizan Raja Sulaiman, project leader for the innovative planting technique component, found that the answer lies in a little intervention and creative planting methods.The Department of Irrigation and Drainage used RM1 million to build four geotubes, each a giant sack stuffed with sand and water, to break the waves in front of the 2ha study plot.More than 5,000 seedlings were then planted with the help of fishermen using the conventional method and three other innovative ways -- the comp-pillow, comp-mat and bamboo encasement methods.During low tides, the team waded gingerly into the thigh-high slush to sow the seedlings in. To reach plots further out, they glided across the mud in wooden boxes called tongkah.

One and a half years on, the backbreaking efforts paid off. Today, row upon row of apple green stalks dot the otherwise sombre mudflat.Not all seedlings rose to the occasion though. Some are playing catch-up while others washed away.Those which survived progressed well under comp-mat, especially the two Rhizophora species -- bakau kurap and minyak -- with a survival rate of over 70 per cent.Seedlings are protected in a coated wire mesh filled with loose coconut fibre and mud.

Within three weeks of being lodged soundly into the mud, roots develop and bind themselves to the cage for support.Comparatively, only a quarter survived under conventional planting."Anything less than half the survival rate is not successful," says Raja Barizan, adding that FRIM is applying for intellectual property rights over the invention.

As for the api-api or Avicennia alba, it thrives best under comp-pillow, where the seedling nestles in compressed coconut fibre held together by nylon strings. Its pencil roots are free to spread out and anchor themselves to the ground.The five-year research may still be in its early days, but both Shamsudin and Raja Barizan are confident of the outcome.

The two successful methods are being applied in Perlis, Kedah and Penang. FRIM has also been invited to rehabilitate degraded forests in Pulau Bintan, Indonesia and Singapore.Mangroves have made their lack of presence truly felt.

Global warming to blame?

The weatherman apparently doesn’t think so … at least not yet. What we are experiencing now is the normal temperature of the Southwest Monsoon during the dry season.

THE Sahara-like weather these past months has many people here pointing the finger at global warming.
At times, going out of doors seems like stepping into a furnace. While the searing heat can be unbearable, even for people used to equatorial climate like us, the thermometres have not indicated anything out of the ordinary.
The readings hover between 30 and 32 degrees Celsius — which is normal during the dry spell. The temperature gets higher when rain is scarce such as during the hot season now.
Commented Metrological Department director Wong Teck Kiong: “The weather is hot but not unnaturally hot. What we are experiencing now is the normal temperature of the Southwest Monsoon during the dry season.”
He does not blame global warming solely for the hot weather, saying the highest temperature recorded to date is 36 degree Celsius (on June 2) and the coming days may see lower temperatures with expected isolated showers.
“July and August represent the peak of the Southwest Monsoon. Of course, we can expect hotter weather after that if there is still no rain.”
In fact, rainfall is expected to drop in the coming months because the early part of the year saw more than its share of downpours.
“That’s the trend — when there’s more rainfall in the beginning of the year, it will be considerably less at mid-year,” Wong explained.
Regardless, he and his team are fully prepared for the worst case scenario such as a long dry spell and the return of the haze.
“We and the related authorities like the Royal Malaysian Air Force are ready to act,” he said, referring to cloud seeding.
Meanwhile, conservationist-environmentalist, Rebecca D’ruz asked: “Can we put the blame for this (scorching weather) entirely on global warming? I don’t know, and I can’t think of a single person who could answer that question with any degree of confidence. The bottom-line is we can only guess at what the ‘real’ impact of global warming will be, and how it will affect the daily lives of people in Sarawak.”
According to her, global warming is everybody’s favourite villain these days.
“People blame it for everything — from rising temperatures to increased floodings and incidence of forest fires. There are even those in Norway who are blaming moose flatulence on global warming.”
She acknowledged though that climate change was happening much faster than previously predicted by the world’s best minds and this is due to human activities.
Sarawak has an equatorial climate that sees daily temperatures ranging from 23 degrees Celsius in the early morning to 32 degrees during the day.
However, D’Cruz pointed out that in the past week, her thermometer at home showed a noon temperature of between 38 and 39 degrees Celsius.
In Malaysia, forecasts on climate modeling have been made with 14 GCM’s (Global Climate Models) which show Malaysia could experience temperature changes from 0.7 to 2.6 degree Celsius and precipitation changes between minus 30 and plus 30 per cent, according to ‘Climate Change — its effects on the agricultural sector in Malaysia’ by Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin, director, Soil Resource Management and Conservation Division, Department of Agriculture.
“The predicted temperature rise is cause for concern but what is equally, if not more alarming, is the 60 per cent variation in precipitation which, in Sarawak, comes largely from rainfall. It means we could experience either 30 per cent less rain or 30 per cent more rain than we are used to,” D’Cruz noted.
In an earlier interview, Wong said global warming and climate change had impacted weather patterns worldwide, Malaysia included, though in varying degrees of intensity and severity.
“Overall, long-term climate trends do not exhibit such drastic and extreme changes as evidenced by short-term climate and weather events both in terms of intensity and frequency like heavy rain episodes and high temperature with long dry spell. However, further detailed studies need to be carried out to ascertain and evaluate its impact,” he added.
Wong said in a tropical country like Malaysia, the immediate effect could be seen in the amount of rainfall.
Last year’s increased rainfall and rainy days over the annual average indicated that Sarawak had felt the effect of global warming and climate change, he noted.
Dr Pengguang Manggil, controller of Environment Quality, Natural Resources & Environment Board, believes the rising temperature is due to climactic changes caused by global warming.
“Global warming is coming and is here to stay earlier than anticipated. This phenomenon will have serious impacts on humankind if nothing is done to halt or reverse the trend,” he said.
Environment and Public Health Minister, Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh, also believes global warming is the cause of rising temperatures, currently being experienced.
“Now you can see the icebergs and glaciers melting in the North Pole.”
He added that Sarawak was now experiencing the effects of climate change though less in intensity, at least for now.
The recent floodings in Johor and Sarawak, and the typhoon-like winds and storms were tell-tale signs of the on-set of global warming, he pointed out.
A prominent scientist has warned that the tropics is expanding polewards with far-reaching impacts, notably in intensifying water scarcity in the Mediterranean, the US sunbelt, Southern Africa and Southern Australia.
Just what is global warming or climate change?
Unheard of some 30 years ago, this phenomenon has become a ‘hot’ topic and world leaders are making it a priority alongside other pressing issues like the global economic crisis and the Middle East conflict.
Explained Dr Pengguang: “Global warming, in layman’s term, is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near-surface, air and oceans since the mid 20th century and its projected continuation.”
During the last 100 years (ending 2005), the global surface temperature had increased by 0.74+0.18 degrees Celsius, attributed mainly to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations such as carbon dioxide, methane and ozone.
These gases in the stratosphere act like a greenhouse roof, letting in enough of the sun’s heat to keep the Earth warm for humans, plants and animals to live.
Human activities over the one hundred years have greatly increased the concentration of these gases, causing the atmosphere to hold in too much heat.
Based on the climate model projections, the global surface temperature will likely increase by a further 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius in the 21st century.
In essence, global warming is caused by the increase in the concentration of anthrogenic greenhouse gases of which carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant.
The CO2 is released when coal, oil, gasoline, natural gas and other fossil fuels are burnt to produce electricity, heat and cool buildings and power vehicles.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased exponentially from 280 parts per million (ppm) at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Europe to about 390 ppm today, and the figure is rising to 1.5 to 2 ppm annually.
The Inter-governmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.
Reputable scientists say the CO2 concentration must be kept below 450 ppm otherwise the costs of adapting to a warmer world would not be bearable.
The other greenhouse gas is methane, released to the atmosphere when wastes in landfill, plants and other biomass decompose.
The increase in the concentration of the GHGs is also caused by land use and land use change and clearing of green areas.
Climate change, on the other hand, is the long-term significant change in the expected average weather patterns of a specific region or more relevantly to contemporary socio-political concerns of the Earth as a whole over an appropriately significant period of time.


Climate change will affect food production

AGRICULTURE is one of the sectors that could potentially be greatly affected by extreme climate change.
Physical damage, loss of harvest and drop in productivity are examples of direct and indirect effects of the phenomenon.
According to official projections, increases in temperature and changes in rainfall pattern could directly affect yields and hasten the spread of fungi and diseases.
States most vulnerable to these changes are northern peninsular Malaysia as well as coastal Sabah and Sarawak, according to ‘Climate change — its effects on the agricultural sector in Malaysia’ by Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin, director, Soil Resource Management and Conservation Division, Department of Agriculture.
The past records of Malaysia’s climate show a similar trend that has been encountered globally as indicated in assessments of the Inter-governmental panel on climate Change (IPCC).
The country’s temperature has increased 0.18 degree Celsius per decade for over 40 years since 1951.
The climate conditions are projected to continue on an upward trend. Modeling results estimate that temperature in Malaysia may become warmer by mid and end of the century. A substantial increase in monthly rainfall over the north east coastal region and decrease in monthly rainfall in west coast of peninsular Malaysia may be expected.
Future river flows in several watersheds in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia are simulated as increases in hydrologic extremes when compared with their historical levels.
By end of the century, a more significant change in the annual rainfall may be expected in the western regions of Sabah and Sarawak.
Every 10C temperature rise may cause 10 per cent reduction in rice yields and prolonged drought conditions may adversely impact the current flooded rice ecosystem, putting national food security at greater risk.
The oil palm plantation may be negatively affected in two scenarios — temperature rise that causes drought or increased rainfall that leads to flooding.
The increase in flood intensity and frequency will incur additional costs on water resources management due to the needs to adjust future flood mitigation plans as well as the existing flood mitigation schemes and drainage systems.
The rise in sea level will lead to tidal inundation, shoreline erosion, increased wave action and saline intrusion, causing submergence of corals, loss of fisheries resources, plantation lands, and mangrove forests, and possible relocation of coastal infrastructure. (source: Stakeholder Consultation in the Development of Climate Change Policy: Malaysia’s Approach. Tan Ching Tiong, Joy Jacqueline Pereira and Koh Fui Pin, Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI)
Even now, climate change is already affecting hundreds of millions of people and in the next 20 years, those affected will likely more than double, making it the greatest emerging humanitarian challenge of our time.
However, many consider it is a wholly environmental problem, a view reinforced by pictures of glaciers and polar bears, not human beings.
Furthermore, even if the international community is able to contain climate change, over the next decade, human society must prepare for more severe climate change and more dangerous human impacts.
Recent evidence suggests that important changes in climate are likely to occur more rapidly and be more severe than the IPCC assessments.
In many key areas, the climate system is already moving beyond its traditional patterns.
Large-scale tipping point events such as the rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheets and the shutdown of the Gulf Stream have occurred and some have already happened such as the loss of the Arctic summer ice in 2007 and the devastating forest fires in Borneo, which may be a combined effect of deforestation and climate change.
According to Rebecca D’ruz, dire consequences await if inactivity remains on the part of mankind.
“Global warming will pass the widely acknowledged danger level of two degrees, since there is an about 20-year delay between emission reductions and the halting of their warming effect.
“This report clearly demonstrates that climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic.”
However, she believes now is not too late to start the reversing process as the chance to hold global warming at a 2-degree Celsius increase is still here but the race between climactic changes and climate policy will be a close one.
Added Dr Pengguang Manggil: “Environmental prediction is everyone’s responsibility because whatever each individual does will have some impact on environmental quality, be it the air, water or soil media.
“The local authorities, being the captains of the community in each municipality, have a very important role to play in that they act as the drivers of change and at the same time, as agents of the government to initiate and implement the policy framework that could well have serious impacts on our environmental quality.”