Global warming to blame?

The weatherman apparently doesn’t think so … at least not yet. What we are experiencing now is the normal temperature of the Southwest Monsoon during the dry season.

THE Sahara-like weather these past months has many people here pointing the finger at global warming.
At times, going out of doors seems like stepping into a furnace. While the searing heat can be unbearable, even for people used to equatorial climate like us, the thermometres have not indicated anything out of the ordinary.
The readings hover between 30 and 32 degrees Celsius — which is normal during the dry spell. The temperature gets higher when rain is scarce such as during the hot season now.
Commented Metrological Department director Wong Teck Kiong: “The weather is hot but not unnaturally hot. What we are experiencing now is the normal temperature of the Southwest Monsoon during the dry season.”
He does not blame global warming solely for the hot weather, saying the highest temperature recorded to date is 36 degree Celsius (on June 2) and the coming days may see lower temperatures with expected isolated showers.
“July and August represent the peak of the Southwest Monsoon. Of course, we can expect hotter weather after that if there is still no rain.”
In fact, rainfall is expected to drop in the coming months because the early part of the year saw more than its share of downpours.
“That’s the trend — when there’s more rainfall in the beginning of the year, it will be considerably less at mid-year,” Wong explained.
Regardless, he and his team are fully prepared for the worst case scenario such as a long dry spell and the return of the haze.
“We and the related authorities like the Royal Malaysian Air Force are ready to act,” he said, referring to cloud seeding.
Meanwhile, conservationist-environmentalist, Rebecca D’ruz asked: “Can we put the blame for this (scorching weather) entirely on global warming? I don’t know, and I can’t think of a single person who could answer that question with any degree of confidence. The bottom-line is we can only guess at what the ‘real’ impact of global warming will be, and how it will affect the daily lives of people in Sarawak.”
According to her, global warming is everybody’s favourite villain these days.
“People blame it for everything — from rising temperatures to increased floodings and incidence of forest fires. There are even those in Norway who are blaming moose flatulence on global warming.”
She acknowledged though that climate change was happening much faster than previously predicted by the world’s best minds and this is due to human activities.
Sarawak has an equatorial climate that sees daily temperatures ranging from 23 degrees Celsius in the early morning to 32 degrees during the day.
However, D’Cruz pointed out that in the past week, her thermometer at home showed a noon temperature of between 38 and 39 degrees Celsius.
In Malaysia, forecasts on climate modeling have been made with 14 GCM’s (Global Climate Models) which show Malaysia could experience temperature changes from 0.7 to 2.6 degree Celsius and precipitation changes between minus 30 and plus 30 per cent, according to ‘Climate Change — its effects on the agricultural sector in Malaysia’ by Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin, director, Soil Resource Management and Conservation Division, Department of Agriculture.
“The predicted temperature rise is cause for concern but what is equally, if not more alarming, is the 60 per cent variation in precipitation which, in Sarawak, comes largely from rainfall. It means we could experience either 30 per cent less rain or 30 per cent more rain than we are used to,” D’Cruz noted.
In an earlier interview, Wong said global warming and climate change had impacted weather patterns worldwide, Malaysia included, though in varying degrees of intensity and severity.
“Overall, long-term climate trends do not exhibit such drastic and extreme changes as evidenced by short-term climate and weather events both in terms of intensity and frequency like heavy rain episodes and high temperature with long dry spell. However, further detailed studies need to be carried out to ascertain and evaluate its impact,” he added.
Wong said in a tropical country like Malaysia, the immediate effect could be seen in the amount of rainfall.
Last year’s increased rainfall and rainy days over the annual average indicated that Sarawak had felt the effect of global warming and climate change, he noted.
Dr Pengguang Manggil, controller of Environment Quality, Natural Resources & Environment Board, believes the rising temperature is due to climactic changes caused by global warming.
“Global warming is coming and is here to stay earlier than anticipated. This phenomenon will have serious impacts on humankind if nothing is done to halt or reverse the trend,” he said.
Environment and Public Health Minister, Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh, also believes global warming is the cause of rising temperatures, currently being experienced.
“Now you can see the icebergs and glaciers melting in the North Pole.”
He added that Sarawak was now experiencing the effects of climate change though less in intensity, at least for now.
The recent floodings in Johor and Sarawak, and the typhoon-like winds and storms were tell-tale signs of the on-set of global warming, he pointed out.
A prominent scientist has warned that the tropics is expanding polewards with far-reaching impacts, notably in intensifying water scarcity in the Mediterranean, the US sunbelt, Southern Africa and Southern Australia.
Just what is global warming or climate change?
Unheard of some 30 years ago, this phenomenon has become a ‘hot’ topic and world leaders are making it a priority alongside other pressing issues like the global economic crisis and the Middle East conflict.
Explained Dr Pengguang: “Global warming, in layman’s term, is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near-surface, air and oceans since the mid 20th century and its projected continuation.”
During the last 100 years (ending 2005), the global surface temperature had increased by 0.74+0.18 degrees Celsius, attributed mainly to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations such as carbon dioxide, methane and ozone.
These gases in the stratosphere act like a greenhouse roof, letting in enough of the sun’s heat to keep the Earth warm for humans, plants and animals to live.
Human activities over the one hundred years have greatly increased the concentration of these gases, causing the atmosphere to hold in too much heat.
Based on the climate model projections, the global surface temperature will likely increase by a further 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius in the 21st century.
In essence, global warming is caused by the increase in the concentration of anthrogenic greenhouse gases of which carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant.
The CO2 is released when coal, oil, gasoline, natural gas and other fossil fuels are burnt to produce electricity, heat and cool buildings and power vehicles.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased exponentially from 280 parts per million (ppm) at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Europe to about 390 ppm today, and the figure is rising to 1.5 to 2 ppm annually.
The Inter-governmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.
Reputable scientists say the CO2 concentration must be kept below 450 ppm otherwise the costs of adapting to a warmer world would not be bearable.
The other greenhouse gas is methane, released to the atmosphere when wastes in landfill, plants and other biomass decompose.
The increase in the concentration of the GHGs is also caused by land use and land use change and clearing of green areas.
Climate change, on the other hand, is the long-term significant change in the expected average weather patterns of a specific region or more relevantly to contemporary socio-political concerns of the Earth as a whole over an appropriately significant period of time.


Climate change will affect food production

AGRICULTURE is one of the sectors that could potentially be greatly affected by extreme climate change.
Physical damage, loss of harvest and drop in productivity are examples of direct and indirect effects of the phenomenon.
According to official projections, increases in temperature and changes in rainfall pattern could directly affect yields and hasten the spread of fungi and diseases.
States most vulnerable to these changes are northern peninsular Malaysia as well as coastal Sabah and Sarawak, according to ‘Climate change — its effects on the agricultural sector in Malaysia’ by Mustafa Kamal Baharuddin, director, Soil Resource Management and Conservation Division, Department of Agriculture.
The past records of Malaysia’s climate show a similar trend that has been encountered globally as indicated in assessments of the Inter-governmental panel on climate Change (IPCC).
The country’s temperature has increased 0.18 degree Celsius per decade for over 40 years since 1951.
The climate conditions are projected to continue on an upward trend. Modeling results estimate that temperature in Malaysia may become warmer by mid and end of the century. A substantial increase in monthly rainfall over the north east coastal region and decrease in monthly rainfall in west coast of peninsular Malaysia may be expected.
Future river flows in several watersheds in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia are simulated as increases in hydrologic extremes when compared with their historical levels.
By end of the century, a more significant change in the annual rainfall may be expected in the western regions of Sabah and Sarawak.
Every 10C temperature rise may cause 10 per cent reduction in rice yields and prolonged drought conditions may adversely impact the current flooded rice ecosystem, putting national food security at greater risk.
The oil palm plantation may be negatively affected in two scenarios — temperature rise that causes drought or increased rainfall that leads to flooding.
The increase in flood intensity and frequency will incur additional costs on water resources management due to the needs to adjust future flood mitigation plans as well as the existing flood mitigation schemes and drainage systems.
The rise in sea level will lead to tidal inundation, shoreline erosion, increased wave action and saline intrusion, causing submergence of corals, loss of fisheries resources, plantation lands, and mangrove forests, and possible relocation of coastal infrastructure. (source: Stakeholder Consultation in the Development of Climate Change Policy: Malaysia’s Approach. Tan Ching Tiong, Joy Jacqueline Pereira and Koh Fui Pin, Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI)
Even now, climate change is already affecting hundreds of millions of people and in the next 20 years, those affected will likely more than double, making it the greatest emerging humanitarian challenge of our time.
However, many consider it is a wholly environmental problem, a view reinforced by pictures of glaciers and polar bears, not human beings.
Furthermore, even if the international community is able to contain climate change, over the next decade, human society must prepare for more severe climate change and more dangerous human impacts.
Recent evidence suggests that important changes in climate are likely to occur more rapidly and be more severe than the IPCC assessments.
In many key areas, the climate system is already moving beyond its traditional patterns.
Large-scale tipping point events such as the rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheets and the shutdown of the Gulf Stream have occurred and some have already happened such as the loss of the Arctic summer ice in 2007 and the devastating forest fires in Borneo, which may be a combined effect of deforestation and climate change.
According to Rebecca D’ruz, dire consequences await if inactivity remains on the part of mankind.
“Global warming will pass the widely acknowledged danger level of two degrees, since there is an about 20-year delay between emission reductions and the halting of their warming effect.
“This report clearly demonstrates that climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic.”
However, she believes now is not too late to start the reversing process as the chance to hold global warming at a 2-degree Celsius increase is still here but the race between climactic changes and climate policy will be a close one.
Added Dr Pengguang Manggil: “Environmental prediction is everyone’s responsibility because whatever each individual does will have some impact on environmental quality, be it the air, water or soil media.
“The local authorities, being the captains of the community in each municipality, have a very important role to play in that they act as the drivers of change and at the same time, as agents of the government to initiate and implement the policy framework that could well have serious impacts on our environmental quality.”